Friday, October 03, 2008
Reuters is reporting that Moodys is now calling for a 2010 bottom. Its nice, but your still not there. Look at the ARM resets coming up. It will easily be 2011 before we find a bottom. Homes are still vastly over priced. And for some reason, fools with more money than sense are still over paying. For some reason Moodys thinks that banks will be done writing down bad paper by 2010, but I think the paper has to go bad before you can write it down, especially considering the just in time accounting processes banks use these days. Considering how caustic the 2006 ARMs are said to be, I can't quite see how the end of the tunnel comes before 2011 or even 2012.